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Early Voting

For those of you in the obsessed political junkie group, this is an interesting bit of data to consider: early voting numbers. It’s from my old New York buddie, Patrick Gaspard, executive director of the Democratic National Committee.

The memo is here:

CO
- Among non-midterm voters, Democrats lead Republicans 33% to 23% in mail
ballot requests (211,069 to 145,021), 37% to 28% in mail ballots cast (18,678
to 13,857), 36% to 28% in in-person ballots cast (2,884 to 2,294) and 37% to
28% in total ballots cast (21,562 to 16,151)
FL
- The GOP’s traditional absentee ballot request advantage is down 86%
compared with this time four years ago from 261,479 to just 37,157– a
Democratic gain of D +224,322 ballots
- Note that in 2008, Democrats won Florida by 3 points (D 51.0 to R 48.2)
IA
- Democrats lead Republicans in early voting: D 169,162 (47%) vs. R 113,576
(32%)
- Democrats’ lead is up 14% compared with this time four years ago (increased
from D +48,581 to D +55,586)
- Democrats lead Republicans on every metric and with every group – ballots
requested, ballots cast, in-person, mail, midterm voters and non-midterm voters
- Note that in 2008, Democrats won Iowa by 9.5 points (D 53.9 to R 44.4)
MI
- Precincts that voted for Obama in 2008 are out-voting Republican precincts by
a 67% to 33% margin (D 258,572 vs. R 129,679)
- In ballot requests, Obama precincts lead GOP precincts 68% to 32% (D 596,206

NC
- Democrats lead Republicans 51% to 30% in early voting (D 412,144 to R
243,750)
NV
- Democrats lead Republicans on every metric: mail ballots requested (D 29,344
to R 29,106), mail ballots returned (D 12,861 to R 12,294), in-person early
voting (D 79,387 to R 58,458) and total ballots cast (D 92,248 to R 70,752)
OH
- There is no party registration in Ohio, but counties and precincts that Obama
won in 2008 are voting early at a higher rate than GOP counties and precincts
- In counties that Obama won in 2008, 10% of registered voters have already cast
ballots. In GOP counties, only 7% of registered voters have cast ballots
- Voters from precincts that voted for Obama in 2008 have cast 408,788 ballots
(53%) in 2012 compared with just 355,388 ballots (47%) from GOP precincts
- The difference (D +53,400) is 80% higher than the difference at this time four
years ago (D +29,706)
VA
- There is no party registration in Virginia, but counties and precincts that Obama
won in 2008 are voting early at a higher rate than GOP counties and precincts
- In counties that Obama won in 2008, 3.4% of registered voters have already
voted. In GOP counties, only 2.8% of registered voters have voted so far
- Obama precincts have cast 91,468 ballots (54%) to date compared with just
76,434 (46%) for GOP precincts

For what it’s worth, this makes sense if you take into account that, while Republicans were fighting their internal nomination battle, Obama’s team was setting up field offices and putting in place early voting operations; millions of people will vote before Election Day and it’s a fair guess that that could be critical to the president’s campaign.

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