Over the never-ending primary season (I recently picked up a not-so-old old New Yorker issue that had a New Hampshire primary and realized that wasn’t so long ago and it seems like ancient history), I’ve pointed numerous times that on the question of so-called "free trade" I wasn’t entirely sure that there would be a whole lot of change in a Democratic Administration (we certainly know what the Republicans think). Well, today, The Wall Street Journal wrestles with this question:

Since  at least John F. Kennedy, presidential candidates have campaigned as tough  on trade and then governed as free traders. Some business leaders are  expecting the same if Barack Obama makes it to the White  House.

 

Don’t count on  it.

 

Sen. Obama, the Democratic  party frontrunner, and his rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, have expressed  some support for trade liberalization during their careers, as public  opinion and congressional politics have shifted markedly against free  trade. A coalition of anti-free trade activists and labor unions also has  used the long primary season to wring commitments from the two candidates  on an astonishingly detailed list of trade issues, making it hard for them  to reverse course.

    And…

The change in Democratic Party politics  makes it less likely that Sens. Obama and Clinton would change their views if they  make it to the White House. For the past 50 years, presidential candidates  have wooed voters with pledges on trade and sometimes cracked down on  specific sectors. Presidents Kennedy and Richard Nixon restricted textile  imports. Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton took on Japanese  imports. And George H.W. Bush promised to help the West Virginia steel  industry and delivered import restrictions.

    I guess I’m still skeptical. The fact is that it may be true that a Democratic president might demand that there be tougher provisions on the environment and labor. But, all along, I’ve contended that these are somewhat side issues. The real problem is that no candidate is challenging the fundamental underpinnings of globalization–the search of low wages. Until that happens, the changes that are made in so-called "free trade" will not change the dynamic that encourages companies to find low-wage havens for their production.