Typically, it doesn’t happen with a crash. Nope, more like a slow slide–until it’s too late to avoid a really bad economic picture that hurts millions of people. And at least someone is warning of the slide.

The warning comes from the ILO just as the World Bank and IMF are set to meet tomorrow:

Serious risk of global economy getting stuck in a low growth trap

1. Growth in the global economy is slowing in 2014 and even the forecasts of slight improvement in 2015 are beset with uncertainty. Accommodative monetary policy in several countries has pumped liquidity into the global economy but has not stimulated private investment in the real economy despite very low interest rates. Instead market speculation has again been on the upswing and many corporations have opted to accumulate cash. Fiscal policy is still tight in most countries but public debt levels are not declining as tax revenue is weakened by depressed consumption and incomes for the bulk of the workforce.

2. Demand for labour is weak and hiring is not keeping pace with the growth of the world’s workforce. The increase in unemployment and the fall in employment participation rates that followed on the global financial crisis persist in many countries. Self-employment is an increasing share of what growth in employment there is. In many developing countries this is largely informal and of a subsistence character.

3. Real wage growth is weak in most countries for all but the very highest paid. As a result the biggest component of the global economy and potential driver of global growth – household consumption –is flat.

4. Economic growth and the quantity and quality of employment are intertwined. Weakness in labour markets is inhibiting growth which in turn feeds back into a further slowing of employment growth and wages. This dangerous downward spiral risks pushing the world economy in a low growth trap – “secular stagnation” as some economists have dubbed it.

5. Despite progress in reducing extreme poverty since 2000 enormous challenges remain in transforming the pattern of global development to meet the goals of economic, social and environmental sustainability. Establishing a new framework for inclusive growth through full and productive employment and decent work is central to a renewed global drive to eradicate extreme poverty and reduce inequality. Re-establishing a positive relationship between growth and jobs is critical to avoid a low growth trap and to achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth in the medium term.

What to do?

12. A major policy effort is required to reverse the slide into persistent low growth. In addition to the economic damage that scenario holds it also has potentially adverse political consequences, as frustrated aspirations for decent work and rising living standards contribute to political extremism and narrow nationalism. The multilateral system in which the IMF plays a key role was built to overcome such tendencies through “the promotion and maintenance of high levels of employment and real income and the development of the productive resources of all members as primary objectives of economic policy…” (See Article 1 (ii) of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement)

13. The priority must be to lift aggregate global demand. This should be led by the systemically important economies of the G20. While different countries face different challenges, all should review current policies with a view to stimulating consumption by households, which would contribute to business confidence to invest. The ILO fully supports the conclusion of Chapter 3 of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook that “that increased public infrastructure investment raises output in both the short and long term, particularly during periods of economic slack and when investment efficiency is high.” Boosting infrastructure investment should also focus on the reduction of carbon emissions.

Do it.