I’ve been making this prediction for the past month, and the recent huge fundraising surge for Bernie in the 24 hours post debate and the recent election fundraising reports only buttress this guess: by the time of the New Hampshire primary, Bernie will out raise the status quo candidate and likely have more cash-on-hand, if you look at non-Super PAC $ raised.
Hillary Clinton narrowly edged out Bernie Sanders in third quarter fundraising, but she was in a class all by herself when it came to blowing through campaign cash, according to a POLITICO analysis of reports filed Thursday with the Federal Election Commission.The analysis raises red flags about whether Clinton’s increasingly tapped-out big donor base can maintain her massive campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, which spent $26 million ― more than twice that of any other presidential candidate ― between the beginning of July and the end of September. During that stretch, she dramatically expanded her campaign infrastructure, spending more than most of her rivals on payroll-related costs ($8.6 million), polling ($1.6 million in payments and unpaid bills) and office space ($641,000 in rent).
And:
In the third quarter, only 17 percent of Clinton’s cash came from donors who gave $200 or less. By contrast, donors who gave the maximum donation of $2,700 for the primary election ― and who, as such, won’t be able to donate again in the primary ― provided more than 50 percent of the former secretary of state’s haul.
Those max donors are, for example, the donors who would have given money at the fundraiser held by Erskine Bowles, the co-chair of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility (the Catfood Commission), who, along with his co-chair, avowed Social Security opponent Alan Simpson, recommended cuts in Social Security and other social programs and, essentially, prolonging the foolish austerity policies that impoverished millions of people (I’m entirely certain, and would love to see the video, that the status quo candidate argued for “enhancing” Social Security at that event).
By contrast, Bernie will be able to go back to his donors multiple times. His cash will grow.
The political revolution candidate:
On the far other side of the ledger was Sanders. The Vermont Senator, who is among the only leading candidates without a super PAC supporting him, has mounted a surprisingly robust challenge to Clinton for the Democratic nomination on the strength of a grassroots army of small online donors. His campaign raised $26.2 million in the third quarter ― 77 percent of which came from small donors, compared to just a tiny fraction from maxed-out donors ― and spent only $11.3 million.“Other campaigns are bankrolled by big donors who have given so much even under our current corrupt political system they can’t legally give any more,” campaign manager Jeff Weaver said in a statement that pegged the average donation to Sanders at $30. “Bernie’s big base of small donors may give again and again.”
In fact, in the two days since Sanders appearance at the first Democratic presidential debate, his campaign says it has raised $3.2 million from an explosion of nearly 100,000 donations.
Without a doubt, the corrupting influence of the SuperPAC money will be important, and play an important role. But, there are two implications here.
First, Bernie will have the money he needs to win New Hampshire and Iowa; whatever the results at the end of the day, the political revolution will have the resources to compete.
Second, as he reaches out beyond the early states and builds a campaign based on even larger numbers of smaller, regular donors, the messaging is strong: the political revolution is powered by small donors, regular people who want to take on the Wall Street, big donor elite, who fund the status quo candidate, and the Sanders campaign is careful with your money, we don’t need bloated, big campaigns.
So, I’m wagering, by New Hampshire, Bernie, in fact, will have out raised the status quo in donations directly to the campaign.
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ORDER THE ESSENTIAL BERNIE SANDERS AND HIS VISION FOR AMERICA
