I sent the below around a couple of weeks ago and I’m sticking to it. It’s, of course, very optimistic–that’s the kind of guy I am–but feel free to comment yourselves. The upshot:

Obama wins 390 Electoral votes

Democratis end up with 58 Senate seats (net gain of 9–could mean after run-off in the Georgia seat) and 266 House seats (net gain of 31).

  Here is the memo:

Background: some of this might be justification—without basis…–for my repeated claim to many of you that the election would not be close. I thought this even going back a year ago—that any Democrat (yes, even the junior Senator from NY) would win. The 2006 mid-term elections were just a warm-up but a signal of what is coming—and nothing really has changed to make Republicans’ lives easier. The war was the first reason. And the financial crisis just sealed the deal. There is just a huge segment of people who are fed up (yes, you can wonder—what the hell were people thinking in 2004, after four years of experience).

The last week of the 1980 election, the bottom dropped out for Carter and a huge piece of the electorate peeled away to Reagan. I think that will happen again.

Obama wins the following states for a total of 395 electoral votes:

California        

 Colorado        

 Connecticut   

 DC        

 Delaware        

 Florida       

 Georgia      

 Hawaii          

 Illinois        

 Indiana       

 Iowa        

 Maine   

 Maryland      

 Massachusetts        

 Michigan       

 Minnesota    

 Mississippi       

 Missouri                  

 Nevada         

 New Hampshire        

 New Jersey        

 New Mexico        

 New York    

 North Carolina            

 Ohio         

 Oregon    

 Pennsylvania        

 Rhode Island                  

 Vermont       

 Virginia         

 Washington      

 West Virginia         

 Wisconsin   

  And I think there is an outside change he may win more…

Why? And why particularly states like North Caroline, Georgia and Indiana?

1. Voter registration numbers for Democrats have been sky high, beating Republicans by significant numbers. 2 million Democrats have been added to voter rolls in the 28 states that register voters according to party affiliation. The Republicans have lost nearly 344,000 thousand voters in the same states. Democrats have posted big gains in many competitive states, including Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Florida. Example: since 2006, the Democrats have added 167,000 voters in North Carolina, while the Republicans have added 36,000; Pennsylvania: Democrats have added 375,000 voters since 2006 while the Republicans have lost 117,000.

2. Pollsters are under-sampling the black vote which I think will be massive in states like North Caroline and Georgia

3. And, by the end of the race, the Republican vote will be lower because they will be depressed and disspirited (that’s a good thing). I think that when your candidate is headed for certain overwhelming defeat, lots of people just lose the desire to go out and vote.

Obama ground game is pretty impressive. Remember, he brought down the Clinton machine with that ground game.

4. Labor is making an even bigger push this year than in 2004 and 2000.

5. Early voting: it’s true, there was some concern about whether all that youth vote would show up on Election Day (“oh, it’s election day…pass me the bong”). But early voting in many states means those alleged slackers (I think that’s overdone) will have plenty of time to vote—and Obama’s campaign is focused on early voting, big-time.

6. Fury about the financial crisis. All of a sudden the crisis pushed into the Democratic fold a chunk of people who saw their 401(k)s evaporate—and they will make a difference in certain states.

7. The debates—C’mon, the first debate it was over for McCain. Beyond issues, people vote with their guts. From the outset of that debate, I said to friends, “people are not going to like McCain’s refusal to even look at Obama”. It came off as petty and pathetic. And, then, in the 2nd debate, McCain appeared to wander aimlessly around the stage, stringing together sentences that were incomprehensible or at best impossible to follow (could anyone understand half of his points?)

8. Bradley effect—I lived in L.A. when the famous “Bradley effect” was supposed to have taken place. Whether it was real or not, in any other year, race would be a big factor. This time, with the war and the economy, it won’t be in terms of the outcome. The racists, and the people who are racists but hide their feelings, are already counted.

Senate: Democrats will probably pick up seats in Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Oregon, and North Carolina.  My favorite races to savor will be: defeating Elizabeth Dole in NC (a totally useless, do-nothing Senator) and Norm Coleman in Minnesota (who has held Paul Wellstone’s seat, a total travesty—though I will say I don’t think Al Franken will end up being more than an average Senator). I would like to think we can beat Ted Stevens in Alaska given the stain of corruption hanging over him, no matter how his trial ends up, but I’m still a bit uncertain that such a Republican state will toss him out. But, Begich is doing quite well so who knows?

If this is a huge wave election, with a massive black turnout, I think we also have a shot at Georgia and Mississippi.

So, I think seven seats is very doable and maybe even as many as 11; in a wave election, you get seats that come over that you were only seeing on the margins (Remember, in 1980, Reagan’s wave election netted the Republicans 12 seats…picking up three open seats and defeating 9 incumbents including George McGovern)…ugh, and we lived with many of those troglodytes for a long time). 

The Holy Grail is 60 votes so that the Dems can defeat any Republican filibusters. Remember, Democrats have 49 seats, with two independents—Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman–voting with the Dems to give them 51. If we get a big number, we can kick that jerk Joe Lieberman in the backside and let him go be in the minority for the next 4 years until we can dispose of him in 2012 (I commit to donate to anyone who runs against that piece of crap, an embarrassment to my Tribe).

I won’t linger on the House too much only to say there will probably be a net gain of 20-25 seats, and perhaps more…

BUT IS ALL THIS GOOD?

Well, yes. We have to get the crazies out NOW.

But…the fight will not be over. As one worried Democratic member of Congress from NY told me recently, and I paraphrase, having a lot more Members of the House isn’t necessarily good if you are getting a lot of people from conservative districts who will make the Democratic caucus more conservative. In the Senate, no one says that you will get certain Senators to support the party line on important votes. But, on key things like Supreme Court justice nominees, it will make a difference. And, as I’ve pointed out before, if you are a progressive, the future president is not where he needs to be on economics and foreign policy.