Three weeks ago, I took a look at where unions might end up in the Democratic presidential primary race. There has been a fair amount of movement so it’s a good time to check back and see where we are—with some general analysis. Here, and down the line, I’m generally going to focus on national unions, with some exceptions where it makes sense.
Endorsements to date:
United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners: As I surmised a few weeks ago, the union endorsed John Edwards. It isn’t just the size of the union— 520,000 members—that matters, though it is certainly helpful since the union has members spread all across the country. Here are the two interesting points. First, the union tends to be a bit more socially conservative; you will rarely find its president, Doug McCarron, weighing in on the broad issues of the day. It is very narrowly focused on bread-and-butter issues (I’m not saying that pejoratively). So, it is a signal to other unions in the construction trades who have not made an endorsement—for example, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers or the Painters union—which candidate is most acceptable to an influential union in a similar industry.
Second, the Carpenters union is one of the 7 unions of the Change To Win federation. It’s interesting that, of all the CTW unions, the Carpenters were out of the gate first—though a few weeks ago I suspected they might do so. That might signal overwhelming support for Edwards within Change To Win—not surprising, I would say, but with McCarron out front early it might give a nudge to one or more CTW unions who have been mulling over the field and grappling with internal debate around the endorsement (more on that in a moment).
Firefighters: I was surprised by the endorsement of Sen. Chris Dodd. I’m not sure that this changes the dynamic dramatically for Dodd. But, it will help Dodd because the union is very engaged politically and its members participate in politics. And Dodd can at least feel fairly certain that the union’s president, Harold Schaitberger, will ride his horse to the end—remember, that in the dark days of John Kerry’s primary campaign, when his poll numbers were dropping, the firefighters stuck with Kerry (that wasn’t true of all union leaders; one in particular, who will remain nameless, jumped around to at least three candidates depending on his mood).
Steelworkers: endorsed Edwards. I expected this endorsement: nothing is more important to the union’s president Leo Gerard and the rest of the leadership than trade. As Gerard said in a statement: "All of the Democratic candidates in the field share our values, and any one of them would be a major improvement over the current administration." But, they believe Edwards is more likely to share their views on trade than virtually all the candidates. With 1.2 million active and retired members, the union is a crucial actor in the field, particularly Iowa, but as well in large states that will vote on February 5th.
[More after the jump…]
United Mine Workers: endorsed Edwards. With 105,000 active and retired members, the union is not a large presence but it can deploy committed activists in some key states. And one can’t underestimate the outsized media attention the union will be able to draw given the recent disasters in the mining industry.
Machinists: endorsed Sen. Clinton. The union has about 425,000 active members and 275,000 retirees. It does a good job at political mobilization but, like a number of unions, a third of its members vote Republican (though that percentage may be smaller this time around). The union’s president, Tom Buffenbarger, said: "Hillary Clinton earned the IAM’s endorsement by focusing on jobs, health care, education and trade – the bread and butter issues of the American middle class. She is the only candidate of either party to come forward with a comprehensive manufacturing policy and the only candidate to connect with millions of Americans who feel invisible to the current administration."
United Transportation Union: endorsed Sen. Clinton. UTU represents 125,00 active and retired railroad, bus and mass transit workers. The union’s leadership has long-standing ties with the Clintons, going back to 1978 when Bill Clinton ran for governor in Arkansas. I don’t see this endorsement as being particularly significant, either in size of membership nor in the influence the union has on the ground, particularly in the pre- February 5th states and caucuses.
What to watch for in the coming few weeks (I reserve the right to be wrong and still continue to predict in the future—just like any other prognosticator). Change To Win has a convention on September 24th in Chicago (it’s just a one-day affair). I would suspect that one or two of the CTW unions might endorse just prior to the convention or use the convention as a platform to make an announcement.
Service Employees International Union(SEIU): obviously, this is a coveted endorsement. I still think there is a very strong inclination towards Edwards. I’m perplexed why Sen. Clinton missed the union’s August 1 deadline for the presentation of each candidate’s health care plan. Obama has very strong support from the Illinois SEIU leadership, in particular, Tom Balanoff, President of SEIU Local 1 in Chicago.
American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME): I don’t have any indication which way AFSCME will go partly because each of the major candidates has supporters. I’m punting on this one right now.
The Teachers Unions: I have a hunch that the one-million member American Federation of Teachers and the 3.2 million-member National Education Association (which is not affiliated with either of the two labor federations), are not going to make an early endorsement. NEA’s state chapters, in particular, are very independent and I can’t see the union coming to a consensus over one candidate. If any candidate gets an AFT early endorsement, it would likely be Sen. Clinton.
Teamsters: The Teamsters have a board meeting one week before the CTW event. I still think that Edwards has the most support but you can’t discount Sen. Obama’s home-town Chicago Teamsters’ boosters (that area of the country is a very big Teamsters stronghold) and, even more so, Sen. Clinton who has a lot of support among New York Teamsters who carry political sway in the union.
Communications Workers of America: I’d bet that it goes with Edwards. CWA president Larry Cohen is all about organizing and, specifically, the Employee Free Choice Act. My guess is that he, and other top leaders, would think that Edwards is the most committed to supporting labor’s agenda.
United Food and Commercial Workers: 1.3 million members. I’m still betting Edwards.
Transport Workers Union: I still think Edwards. And it may come this month.
Laborers International Union: I think there is sentiment for Edwards but, right now, I don’t see this union doing an early endorsement.
UNITE-HERE: a lock for Edwards (or I submit my resignation as a predictor). Crucial in Nevada where the union owns the streets of Las Vegas.
The Media Industry Unions: I doubt that the Screen Actions Guild, Writers Guild of America, Directors Guild, Actors Equity or IATSE will get involved in any endorsement in the primaries. And it’s not clear that they will all be involved in a general election endorsement either—involvement in electoral politics has been a very touchy subject for these unions over the years.
United Auto Workers: I’m just not sure that the UAW leadership wants to make a choice on this while it’s embroiled in the current national contract negotiations (the contracts expire September 14th). Even after a deal is struck, it will take some time for the politics around the contract terms to work themselves out and for the ratification of the contract to take place [Alert: I’m a UAW member].
General Analysis: when it comes to labor, Obama and Clinton find themselves in an undeclared alliance with a similar objective—stop John Edwards from amassing massive union support. While Obama and Clinton may be the fundraising and poll-leading giants, in the early states—particularly the caucus states of Iowa and Nevada—having the troops to turn out voters is far more critical. It is one thing to attend a rally to check out a candidate or to answer a pollster’s question while reclining in your easy chair but quite another thing to haul your ass out of that chair into the night to a public meeting or a voting booth to vote for a candidate (particularly in Iowa in January).
I don’t see Obama getting the endorsement of a single large national union—he just can’t compete with Edwards and Clinton. Short of getting the endorsements of the national unions, his goal, and Clinton’s goal, is to get large unions to stay on the sidelines in the primary and allow individual locals of the national unions to endorse on their own; in that scenario, one could imagine Obama, Clinton and other candidates (particularly sitting Senators like Dodd and Biden who have long-term relationships with unions) being able to pick off locals in various states. Last point: watch where the most politically active unions with large retiree memberships end up—those retirees have a lot of time on their hands and they end up being the backbone for the phone banks, leaflet distributions and door-to-door work.
As for what labor leaders are feeling—here are my two cents from talking around to a whole bunch of various labor people. The conventional wisdom influences labor leaders as much as the next person. They are obviously looking at issues but also at who polls strongest in battleground states versus Republicans (a number of them are making the argument that Edwards is the strongest, others are saying any Democrat will do well given the Republican field) and who does the best in helping Democrats in tough fights that will determine the mandate in the House, Senate and statehouses.
There is a bit of a 2004 specter hanging over the process when a number of unions came out early for Rep. Richard Gephardt (who ended up coming in fourth in Iowa and dropping out quickly afterwards), while SEIU was in early with Howard Dean. Some unions might not want to be caught riding the wrong horse.
But, this is 2008, folks. Workers are facing a massive crisis. One option is to settle and chose to fight another day by keeping a Republican out and getting an acceptable Democrat in the White House. The other option is to show real power and deliver key votes to a candidate who you believe will be a real warrior for labor, who really helps build labor’s power with, among other things, real labor law reform and real union organizing rights. It’s the difference between a pro-labor vision being driven from The White House versus trying to compel weak Democrats in the House or Senate to take up the cause and present it to a less-than-committed president, Democrat or Republican. I’m not sure why you would spend all the money and grunt work to settle for less.
Finally, I’m kind of interested to see how endorsements shake out between the AFL-CIO and CTW unions. Particularly when it comes to Edwards, unions from both federations are going to end up on the same side—and it will be interesting how that dynamic influences their longer-term relationships down the road.
