I had already had my doubts about how realistic the proposed 2005-2006 AFL-CIO budget is given that it projects a whole lot of income for a “we hope the world will look like this” rather than “this is the world we will likely inhabit.”It’s too bad that, to cover deficits, the Federation can’t print money like the U.S. government but, alas, no such luck. On further reflection, putting aside the fact that the budget assumes that every union will stay in the AFL-CIO (a “what planet do you live on” scenario) there is one wrinkle here that is an even bigger stretch–I call it the Eight Cents Gap.

The budget presumes $95 million in income from per capita dues, which is set at 61 cents per affiliated member per month (as an example, if a certain affiliate reports having 1 million members, it pays $610,000 per month to the Federation). But, 8 cents of that 61 cents is a special assessment that was put in place after the last convention.

To make that assessment a permanent part of the overall per capita tax, the Federation must get **two-thirds** of the delegates to say yes. At the upcoming convention at the end of July in the Windy City, John Sweeney will propose a resolution that makes the 8 cents permanent.

You can see where I’m going here…if the insurgents decide to go to the convention at the end of July in Chicago (and there is a vigorous debate about whether to do so, including the option of holding an alternative convention at the same time in the same city), they could defeat a resolution to make the 8 cents permanent.

They have the votes to do so now–and might be joined by other unions, like the United Auto Workers, who support John Sweeney’s re-election but would be happy to pay less money to the Federation.

There is one wrinkle here. And you have to hold on here to get through this mind-numbing explanation…(skip down a few paragraphs if you get bored to The Upshot). The only way to win such a vote is to have a roll call of all the delegates. Otherwise, if a voice vote is used, it’s just a mass shout-out in a hall and it’s just left to the chair–John Sweeney–to declare which side won. Anyone who has been to a union convention knows how these voice vote things go.

In the bizarre world of the Federation, the insurgents may represent about 35 percent of the membership but only have 9 percent of the delegates–a fact that kind of irks the big unions (Central Labor bodies and State Federations have almost 60 percent of the delegates, though they do not pay per capitas). So, any shout-out would overwhelm the insurgents.

If a roll call is held, however, under Article IV, Section 18, “each delegate representing affiliated national or international unions, organizing committees and directly affiliated local unions shall be entitled to cast one vote for every member whom the delegate represents. Each state, area and local central body and trade and industrial department shall be entitled to one vote.” In other words, the affiliates’ votes, then, are weighted based on their actual size.

But, to get to a roll call votes, 30 percent of the delegates *present* (that means, bodies in the hall, not how many people they represent) must agree to hold one–which, effectively puts the possibility of a roll call vote in the hands of the Central Labor bodies. Got that? Whew, boring and tedious if you ask me.

The upshot: If the 8 cents proposal goes down, that’s 13 percent of the proposed AFL-CIO budget evaporating into thin air. In real money, that’s lopping off $12.3 million from the $95 million generously projected in the budget Council members will vote on this Monday.

So, here’s where this leads. The insurgents cannot, today, field a candidate who can win the presidency of the AFL-CIO. But, they can make it impossible for John Sweeney to run the Federation as its currently constituted, just from a financial standpoint.

So, it’s an interesting hand the insurgents have to play. Pull out before the convention and leave the remaining affiliates the task of figuring out how to pay the bills. Or stay through the convention and scuttle the 8 cents proposal. Or simply threaten one or the other…

Which is the basis upon which there is still a possibility for a deal to be made that includes a new president for the AFL-CIO.

Stay tuned over the weekend (should I particularly mention Sunday???) and next week…hot items to come and some interesting developments.