It’s often said we live in a global economy. Yet, we tend to spend most of our time thinking only about how the economic financial crisis has sent a sea of Americans to the jobless line. The global picture, however, is even more catastrophic: 50 million additional people may find themselves jobless by the end of this year, with the number of people living on less than TWO DOLLARS A DAY rising to 1.4 billion–45 percent of all the world’s employed.
This grim picture comes from a very straightforward employment report just issued this morning by the International Labor Organization.
Here are its main conclusions:
• Based on November 2008 IMF forecasts, the global unemployment rate would rise to 6.1 percent in 2009 compared to 5.7 per cent in 2007, resulting in an increase of the number of unemployed by 18 million people in 2009 in comparison with 2007.
• If the economic outlook deteriorates beyond what was envisaged in November 2008, which is likely, the global unemployment rate could rise to 6.5 per cent, corresponding to an increase of the global number of unemployed by 30 million people in comparison with 2007.
• In a current worst case scenario, the global unemployment rate could rise to 7.1 per cent and result in an increase in the global number of unemployed of more than 50 million people.
• The number of working poor – people who are unable to earn enough to lift themselves and their families above the US$2 per person, per day, poverty line, may rise up to 1.4 billion, or 45 percent of all the world’s employed.
• In 2009, the proportion of people in vulnerable employment – either contributing family workers or own-account workers who are less likely to benefit from safety nets that guard against loss of incomes during economic hardship – could rise considerably in the worst case scenario to reach a level of 53 percent of the employed population. [emphasis added]
My own view is that we will most likely see the worst-case scenario largely because each promise that the bottom is near has proven to be wrong–the genuises ("free marketeers") who cratered the financial system really do not know how to mend it without deep pain being experienced by hundreds of millions of people who had no hand in the mismanagement and greed undertaken by the Robert Rubins of the world.
The report also has some other startling and depressing piece of info:
The new estimates show that 1.4 billion people in developing countries are living in extreme poverty (950 million on previous estimates)… Taking a broader measure of poverty, 2.6 billion people consume less than USD 2 a day in 2005 prices.
Think about that: TWO DOLLARS A DAY. That is the glory of the wonders of the "free market" and "liberalization". I wonder if any of the pundits, economic policy makers, or Robert Rubins of the world, who relentlessly extoll how much the "free market" has done for the planet, could live on TWO DOLLARS A DAY?
Which makes the Republican game-playing over the stimulus package seem even more pathetic.
