I just spent a couple of days inside the Beltway at the AFL-CIO’s Organizing Summit. I’d guess there were 500 people there and there was a lot of enthusiasm and optimism because of the recent Congressional elections. John Edwards got an award Friday night and the crowd was chanting, “Run, John, Run.”

A heavy emphasis was put on pushing for the passage of the Employee Free Choice Act. I wonder, though, what is the strategy for passing the legislation? Let’s assume it will now pass the Democratic-led House (even if a few truly conservative Democrats vote no, there are probably enough votes). Everyone assumes that the president will veto the legislation so much of the chatter is about building momentum towards 2008 when the presidency is up for grabs, hoping that when a Democrat takes over the White House, she or he will sign the legislation.

I intentionally left out the Senate because it seems to me that that is the immovable obstacle. To pass any piece of legislation, you need 60 votes to break a filibuster. The Democrats will have 51 votes (that includes the independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman). Where do the other 9 votes come from? I suppose you could hope for Maine Senators Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, who are called “moderates.” Maybe throw in Arlen Spencer who has been one of the less hostile Republicans when it comes to labor. Ohio’s George Voinovich?

You might get one or two more who are in tough re-election fights come 2008–say Minnesota’s Norm Coleman. But, if there was any chance of it really passing, how many of the Republicans would actually take a hard vote–and how many Democrats would we lose (like Nebraska’s Ben Nelson or Lousiana’s Mary Landrieu) if the business lobby, which writes big checks to so many of them, called in a chit.

Part of the strategy likely involves the 2008 Senate races. Republicans have to defend 21 seats, Democrats just 12. I can see that there are eight states with strong possibilities: four states which John Kerry carried in 2004 and four more where the Democrats did well in 2006 (Colorado, Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire), either in Senate races or other down-ballot races. But, who knows what the environment will look like then.

There just isn’t a path that I can see where this passes anytime in the future. Does anyone else have a better read? I’d like to be hopeful–and this is not at all a criticism of pushing the concept. Just doing the hard math.