We are really going to have to push back against what the meaning of "recovery" is. I am sure you are reading the claims of "recovery" coming from various sources. Today, the OECD weighs in, via a report in The Wall Street Journal:
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Thursday said the global economy is emerging from its worst slump since Second World War faster than it had forecast only three months ago.
In a twice-yearly update to its main economic forecasts, the OECD said the drag on growth from the drawdown on inventories appears to be coming to an end.
Errr…this is the same OECD that said, just two months ago, that we are facing a "social crisis lasting for decades" because of the massive pension crisis facing tens of millions of people around the world.
Indeed, back-to-school sales are down and that is a bad signal for holiday sales. And look at the retirement crisis in America:
“Retirement is kind of an elusive dream at this point,” says Ms. Petrucci, 58, who works at an Atlanta hospital while her retired husband, Ned, 61, interviews for jobs (unsuccessfully, so far). “We tease at work about someday having to go around at the hospital with our walkers.”
The diverted life plans of families like the Petruccis are an unintended economic consequence of the nation’s sprawling 401 (k)plans. These private retirement savings vehicles, designed 30 years ago as a supplement to traditional corporate pensions, have somewhat haphazardly replaced the old system, like an innocuous weed that somehow overgrew the garden.
As is apparent in this downturn, the economic effects of such an ad hoc system can be perverse. In boom times, when companies need more workers, the most experienced employees may decide to retire, taking comfort in their bloated 401(k)s, whose values typically fluctuate with the financial markets.
So, we really need to make our own judgement about what "recovery" means. Until people have meaningful work, decent wages, and a safe retirement, "recovery" will be a statistic with little meaning.
