The combination of two stories today in The New York Times reinforces what has been clear: the occupation continues to descend into more chaos. My first thought in reading the articles was: If only The Times hadn’t acted, as much of the MSM did, as a cheerleader for the war, would we be in this mess? Everything written in these two pieces was precisely predictable.

First, is the lead front-page piece about the failure of the prime minister to hold Iraq together:

Senior Iraqi and American officials are beginning to question whether Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki has the political muscle and decisiveness to hold Iraq together as it hovers on the edge of a full civil war.

Four months into his tenure, Mr. Maliki has failed to take aggressive steps to end the country’s sectarian strife because they would alienate fundamentalist Shiite leaders inside his fractious government who have large followings and private armies, senior Iraqi politicians and Western officials say. He is also constrained by the need to woo militant Sunni Arabs connected to the insurgency.

Patience among Iraqis is wearing thin. Many complain that they have seen no improvement in security, the economy or basic services like electricity. Some Sunni Arab neighborhoods seem particularly deprived, fueling distrust of the Shiite-led government.

Wholly predictable. Then, that’s followed up by an article inside the paper that makes it clear that, without a change in policy, the troops aren’t coming home anytime soon:

The top American commander in the Middle East said Tuesday that more than 140,000 soldiers would probably be needed in Iraq at least until spring because of continuing sectarian violence and the need to secure Baghdad.

“I think that this level probably will have to be sustained through next spring, and then we’ll re-evaluate,” the commander, Gen. John P. Abizaid, told reporters at a breakfast round table.

And I’d bet my last dollar that any article written next spring, without a chance in policy calling for the immediate withdrawal of the troops, will, then, quote Abizaid saying that the security situation has not improved and the troops won’t be coming back until…your guess.