Tense times in auto worker land. Something will happen in the coming weeks that will reshape the lives of autoworkers and the UAW. But, it’s the longer term future that is perilous.

    Right now, the negotiations between the UAW and the auto companies are focused mainly on health care costs. As we’ve discussed here before, the companies are trying to get the UAW to buy into the idea of a VEBA (reminds me of the first Star Trek movie…if you have to ask, you’re not in the loop, baby). From today’s Wall Street Journal:

As GM walked into the negotiations, the 54-year-old Mr. Wagoner’s top priority was leaning on the union to further address the auto maker’s health-care burden. The company has about $50 billion in retirement obligations for UAW retirees and their families, and that liability results in $3 billion in cash expenses annually, or nearly $750 per light vehicle sold last year in the U.S. As GM, which already extracted concessions from the union on health care in 2005, sees sales in North America decline and medical expenses inflate at double-digit rates, the burden gets heavier by the day.

As part of the negotiations, GM put two proposals on the table for the UAW, according to people familiar with the proposals. One involves the establishment of a union-run health-care trust, or VEBA, which would be funded by GM cash, debt and possibly stock.

A VEBA — which stands for voluntary employees beneficiary association — would clean considerable risk off the balance sheet and significantly reduce the annual costs associated with the liability. The other option excludes the VEBA but calls for deeper, more-painful cuts in several areas so that GM can inch closer to labor-cost parity with its chief rival, Toyota Motor Corp. GM has pushed the VEBA option hard, telling the UAW that the arrangement would protect against unilateral retiree health-care cuts by the auto maker in the future if needed.

    I’ve said before that I’m a bit nervous about the VEBA idea, mainly because no one can anticipate where health care costs will be down the road–and they usually end up being far higher than you expect.

    But, let’s for a moment assume that the VEBA happens and it can be managed. The real challenge is this:

While developing close ties with the union and earning the trust of union officials who are loath to cede ground to the auto makers, Mr. Wagoner has also taken steps to reduce GM’s reliance on the UAW, significantly expanding sales in emerging markets and accelerating efforts to reorganize the company’s manufacturing base into a global footprint.

    You see, there are actually plenty of auto jobs, here and abroad. But, they increasingly are NON-UNION jobs. The auto industry is growing in the U.S.–but it’s growing in the South, it’s growing non-union and it’s growing with wages and benefits far lower than the average wage of a current auto worker.

    The ultimate goal, from the corporate end, in the auto negotiations is to survive–and, then, proceed on the merry road the companies have embarked on for some time now: rid themselves of the union and the cost structure that good unions jobs entail. It makes perfect logical, financial sense. That it is a disaster for working Americans is not their concern.