Well, here’s the first sign that we’re headed for some trouble with the economy. The numbers are in for economic growth and it’s not pretty: in the fourth quarter, the economy grew just 1.1 percent–the lowest in three years.

Now, regular readers of this page know that I’m a critic of government statistics because they don’t tell us what we need to know about how any economic activity is distributed. We could be growing like crazy–stuff is being made–but the benefits of that growth could be spread out very badly. Indeed, if you check out this study, you will see how the disparity between rich and poor is growing.

Which makes the fourth quarter number even scarier. It’s just measuring economic activity but that number, on its own, doesn’t shed light on how people are struggling. Wages are flat. Consumers are in hock way above their eyelids now–more than $9,300 in debt for the average person–and everyone is now starting to get worried that the housing boom is about to pop…which is where people have been digging out the cash to finance their debt. It’s coming to an end.

What’s even more revealing is how dumb and out-of-touch economic forecasters are. In The New York Times piece today, we have this observation: “‘It is not so much surprising as baffling,’ said Ian C. Shepherdson, chief United States economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y.” Well, I bet Ian’s job pays quite nicely and he’s likely got health insurance. But, he might find it useful to look at wages and personal debt and maybe the light will go on.