So, let’s sort through yesterday’s elections. I’m not buying into the conventional wisdom that the Democratic Party should be dancing in the streets, or that labor should be celebrating.

Positive: in California, the trend over the last few weeks held–and everyone of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s propositions went down to defeat. The vote was not overwhelming but not a squeaker either. A lot of credit should be given to the labor movement, particularly the AFL-CIO, the AFT and SEIU, to name a few, for turning around the numbers from a few months ago that showed the propositions passing. The defeat of Proposition 75–which would have prohibited public employee’s labor organizations from using dues or fees for political contributions unless each employee provides written consent annually–was particularly sweet.

Caution in red flashing lights: my sense was that a significant number of people voted No because they were particularly pissed that the governor spent $50 million on this special election, not necessarily because of solid opposition to the substance of the propositions. Remember, this numbskull was elected governor comfortably in 2002 partly because the Dems had lost the voters, albeit because the head of the ticket was the deeply unpopular Gray Davis. But, before people start predicting the demise of the governor in 2006, the Dems better come up with a real program.

Positive: Dems took the two governorships in New Jersey and Virginia. I thought the interesting point that arose from voter interviews was how many voted for Democrats as a vote against the Iraq war. In New Jersey, some voters who were not thrilled by the appalling negative attacks (who cares what Jon Corzine’s ex-wife thinks or whether Forrester had an affair?) said they cast their vote for Corzine as a thumbs-down on the war. The Iraq war will–and should–become a defining issue in the 2006 elections.

Caution: in my humble opinion, it’s not clear to me that those of us who live inside the labor movement should be rejoicing…after all, the newly elected Virginia Governor Timothy Kaine is a “centrist,” a label that does not auger well for workers. Here’s an example of my point–a labor leader reported to me that he attended a Democratic Party election rally in Old Town Alexandria, VA for Kaine. John Sweeney was introduced in a rousing manner by none other than Rep. Jim Moran, who was the first half emcee for the event….and one of the CAFTA 15 and an avid Democratic supporter of the bankruptcy law that is devastating millions of working families. Kaine was one-half of an administration–term-limited Mark Warner being the previous gov–supporting the privatization of almost 10,000 state worker jobs, refusing to even acknowledge the existence of public sector union
rights (there are none in Virginia), and have done zero to support private sector unions in the state.

And, then, there is New York City…well, we know how that turned out. Labor split, and many large unions supported Republican Michael Bloomberg–it’s a mess.