This is a modest observation that comes from an optimist–my friends say delusional optimist–that an Obama landslide is coming. Here’s the question: if it happens, will too many Democratic-inclined voters stay home in the three Western states and cost Democrats some close, important races?
A few initial thoughts:
- The Obama campaign, if anything, has shown how adept it is in building an effective ground game. So, this may already have been factored in and planned for.
- We know that the the national party, thanks to Howard Dean, has a 50-state focus.
In 1980, yours truly lived in California. By the time 9 p.m. Eastern time rolled around, the networks had all called the presidential race for Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter conceded–while the polls were still open in California. Some believed that Carter’s early concession cost the Democrats some House seats–though it could also be argued that the Reagan wave would have washed those seats away anyway.
It’s entirely possible, and quite feasible if you look at the state-by-state trends right now, that even short of a massive landslide, Obama will have collected the 270 electoral votes from Colorado east while the polls are still open in the Western states. In other words, California, Washington and Oregon (not to mention, Hawaii) will simply be icing on the cake.
So, here’s my point: at the very least, Democrats are looking at close contests, right now, in the following races in the three Western states and Alaska, including two Senates contests:
Oregon: Senate seat–incumbent Republican Gordon Smith versus Democrat Jeff Merkley.
WA-8th: Darcy Burner v. incumbent Republican Dave Reichert.
Governor’s race in WA: incumbent Dem Gov Chris Gregoire versus Dino Rossi.
CA: 4th incumbent Republican John Doolittle against Dem Charlie Brown.
CA 11th: incumbent Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Dean Andal (R) (a district that is leaning Democratic but McNerney is a first-termer and it’s a traditionally slightly conservative district).
Alaska: Sen seat–Dem challenger Mark Begich v. incumbent Republican Ted Stevens.
If the presidential election appears to be over early in the evening, will a small enough number of voters stay home and not vote in the non-presidential races?
The flip side to argue is that people feel this is a historic race and will vote no matter what…and that a landslide will actually demoralize Republicans…
Again, this could be a question that is unimportant and already quite analyzed by the appropriate strategists. But, it’s worth preparing for and considering.
There are simple solutions to deal with this possibility:
- Get out the vote phone calls and door-knocking, which can be tailored even a day or two before Election Day, can emphasize the need to get to the polls, no matter what the presidential race is showing.
- Sen. Obama could tape a robo-call underscoring #1–and maybe even have that pushed out Election Day–or before.
And feel free to tell me that there is nothing to worry about.
